14 August 2017

NIFTY SHORT TERM UPDATE

Hi Friends,

As mentioned in my previous Post. Nifty closed below 9792. So that's the Indication of Trend Change. Nifty tested 9685 and started rebounding. Currently it's trading near the Resistance of 9800. As Long as Nifty stays below this Resistance the Trend will remain Down.



As visible from the chart Nifty has Resistance near 9805-9815. The fall from 10088 to 9685 looks like a 3rd Wave which extended 2.618% of Wave 1. And current bounce might be Wave 4 which might be ending soon. As long as Nifty stays below the Channel Resistance Nifty Might Fall towards 9530-9450 as mentioned earlier. The confirmation for the fall would come once Nifty starts trading below 9777 and goes below 9710. Today's close must be below 9777 to conclude that the Down Trend will continue.




How long Nifty could continue to decline? If the assumption of the Current rise being wave 4 is true Nifty may Fall in the proportion to the previous Fall. Nifty has Fibonacci supports near 9527-9451-9354. Nifty Might Fall towards the previous Swing Low near 9450.

Conclusion: The assumption of Downtrend to continue will hold until Nifty closes and trades below 9792-9777. Close and sustaining above 9792 and we shall look for other alternatives.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit. 

9 August 2017

NIFTY EW ANALYSIS

Hi Friends,

As mentioned in my Facebook Post of 1st August Nifty started declining after testing 10137. As visible from the Weekly chart below Nifty took the Resistance of the Weekly Channel. Nifty Formed Shooting star on Weekly and started declining. This is the Initial sign of Trend Reversal.



Nifty started forming Lower Top Lower Bottom on Daily Chart further confirming the Trend Reversal. Nifty broke the Support at 9944, 9927 and closed below 9927. This is further sign of weakness. Currently the supports are at 9868-9836 and 9792. There is Channel and swing low Support at 9792 as visible from the Daily Chart below.



Nifty seem to have completed Wave (I) at 10137. If Nifty breaks the Support at 9792 and sustains below it will be confirmation of Top done at 10137. If Bulls Manage to protect 9792 then Nifty may continue the Uptrend.

Confirmation of medium term Trend Reversal will be only below 9792. Once Nifty starts trading below 9792 and sustains below it we can look for downside targets for Correction in Wave (II). Once below 9792 the next strong Support is at 9448. We can expect decline towards 9440 in August series once Nifty sustains below 9792.

Once Nifty confirms the Trend Reversal it may fall towards 9440, 9270 or 9020 over next 3 months. This Analysis will be true only once Nifty breaks and sustains below 9792. Failure to break 9792 will lead to continuation in Up Trend. 

I will look for alternate count if Nifty breaks and sustains above the Resistance at 9944-9988. Above 9944-9988 we can look for New High towards 10270.

Conclusion :- One needs to look at the Market Behavior near key levels 9792-9836 and 9944-9988 to make their trading decisions.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

6 August 2017

SUN PHARMA - END (OF BEAR)?

Hi Friends,

Sun Pharma had been in Down Trend ever since it made Top in April 2015. The stock has been trading in Downward Trend Channel since 2015. The Stock has declined around 60% in last 2 years. Overall consensus is Bearish on Pharma stocks with negative News from US FDA. According to many Analysts and Investors Pharma Story is over. Once the Darling of D-Street Pharma stocks are now dead and no one wants to Invest in Pharma.

However Technical Analysis suggesting something else. Sun Pharma seems to be in Triple Zigzag Correction. Currently it seems to be in last leg Z of the Zigzag. The Correction might get over near 470. Downtrend Channel support is near 470 and RSI has Positive Divergence as visible in Chart below.



If Sun Pharma takes Support near 470 & start Moving Up it might lead to Trend Reversal. As visible from the Chart below Sun Pharma has Long Term Trend Channel support near 470. The stock seems to be 4th wave Correction which is forming as a Triple zigzag. The Correction in Wave 4 might get over near 470.



If the stock manages to protect the support near 470 it could be a Turn Around Story. Sun Pharma may resume Up Trend in Wave 5 and head towards the higher end of Monthly Trend Channel above All Time High. The stock may provide 100-200-300% & Return in Next 3-5-7 years.

Speculators may Buy the stock near 470 with slop loss of Trend Channel Support. Ideally a move above the Falling Trend Channel or above 650 would be confirmation of Trend Reversal. Risk Averse Investors may Buy the Stock once it starts trading above Channel Resistance. Speculators may Buy Near 470.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

4 August 2017

JP ASSOCIATES - MULTIBAGGER IDEA

Hi Friends,

JP Associates had been in Long Term Down Trend ever since the Top of 2008. The stock has been trading in Downward Trend Channel since 2010. It tasted Rs. 5 in June 2016  and since then it's a Turn around story.


The Stock started forming Higher Top Higher Bottom formation. That is initial signal for Trend Reversal. The stock is trading above the Short term & Medium Term weekly EMAs giving more strength to Bulls.

The stock has broken above the Weekly Trend Channel Resistance near 21 and firmly trading above it. It is the strong signal of Long Term Trend Reversal. The stock has given over 400% Return since June 2016.

I recommended to Buy the stock near 8 in Nov 2016 in my Twitter & Whats app posts. As a discipline I booked Profits twice in the stock. I have booked more than 250% Return in stock. I believe it can be a multibagger idea. As long as it trades above Weekly Channel.

Currently stock has resistance near 30 and hence booking profits near 30 would be ideal strategy. The stock is currently trading in Overbought zone. Short term correction to 20 would be ideal price to re-enter in stock.

Conclusion: The stock can be a multibagger and provide 500 to 800% Return over next 5 to 7 years as long as it trades above the Weekly Channel Suppot.

Disclosure: Long in Family portfolio in the stock at an average price of 8.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

8 May 2017

SELL IN MAY AND STAY AWAY

Hi Friends,

Nifty has been in range of 9270-9370 for last 6-7 trading sessions. Nifty formed an Engulfing Bearish Candle with Negative RSI Divergence on Daily Chart after testing 9377. On next day Nifty formed Inside Day and gave a Doji close.  All these are signs of Distribution and Market might be in Process of forming Medium Term Top.

As mentioned Nifty seems to be in 1st Wave of the Bull Market which started near 7900. Nifty seem to have completed 5 Wave Rise near 9377 with an extended 3rd Wave. The Divergence between 3rd and 5th Wave is initial signal of Trend Reversal. Nifty is facing strong Resistance near 9370 and Support at 9270. Nifty spent more than a week within this range which is more likely to be a sign of Distribution as visible from the Chart below. Nifty formed an Ending Diagonal in wave (v) of Wave 5. And dropped sharply to 9270 which might be wave (i) of the impending Correction. Pullback in wave (ii) seems to be a Bull Trap.

Currently there is Strong Support at 9270-9230. Resistance is at 9340-9370. Once Nifty breaks the Support it may decline to 9025. Downtrend will be confirmed below 9230. Below 9025 Nifty may further decline to 8905-8810-8710. The extent of Correction in Wave 2 will be known as the Market unfolds going forward. 


As mentioned in my video analysis the crowd is now extremely Bullish as Nifty reaching All Time Highs. It's a Typical phenomenon of Market Sentiments. Currently Bulls need to be extremely careful. One must book profits and remain in cash. And must avoid excessive Buying or leveraging. Trend will change to Down below 9230. Once the Trend changes to Down one can then short on Rise.

As mentioned we are still in early stage of Bull Market. Those who haven't made any Investments can wait for the Correction to get over in a month ahead. The Correction will give a Buying Opportunity. One needs to find Stock Specific Opportunities to make Investment in Equities. Currently just wait for Correction to get over.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

18 April 2017

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Course Content

·         Introduction To Technical Analysis
·         Types Of Charts
·         Introduction to Japanese Candlesticks
·         Introduction Dow Theory   
·         Moving Averages
·         Indicators & Oscillators
·         Trend Analysis
·         Trend Lines & Trend Channels
·         Price Patterns (Reversal & Continuation)
·         Gap Analysis
·         Support And Resistance
·         Fibonacci Ratios (Retracements & Extensions)
·         Price & Volume Analysis
·         Trade & Risk Management
·         Portfolio Management


Course Highlights

·         Effective use of Trend Lines and Trend Channels
·         Combination of Price Patterns, RSI & Fibonacci
·         High Probability Trading Price Patterns.
·         Identifying Possible Trend Reversals Ahead of Market Action.
·         Limited seats to enable Highly Interactive Session
·         Encyclopedia of Free E-Books on Technical Analysis


Course Duration & Fees

Duration:  2 Days  –  16 Hours
Timings:  10.00 a.m. to 6.00 p.m.
Fees:        Rs. 10,000/-

For Enquiry

Call Harsh:  9920452057

Email:- trendonomics@gmail.com

7 April 2017

SELL ON STALL BEFORE THE FALL

Hi Friends,

As mentioned in my Twitter post Nifty formed a Doji with Negative RSI Divergence on Daily Chart after testing 9274. On next day Nifty formed Inside Day and gave a flat close post Rates Unchanged by RBI in Monitory Policy.  Nifty finally started declining and closed below 9220. All these are signaling a Shot Term Top in place.

As mentioned Nifty seem to have completed 5 Wave Impulse  at 9274, with extended 3rd Wave. And the 5th Wave seems to be truncated at 9274. Nifty formed Double Top on Daily Chart. On Weekly Chart Nifty formed Shooting Star with Negative Divergence on RSI. As visible in chart below.

Currently there is Strong Support at 9165-9149. Resistance is at 9220, 9245-9265. Once Nifty breaks the support it may decline to 9020. Downtrend will be confirmed below 9150. Below 9020 Nifty may further decline to 8940-8860-8740. The extent of Correction in Wave 2 on a Larger Degree will be known as the Market unfolds going forward. 


As mentioned in my video analysis the crowd is now Bullish as Nifty reaching the Highs. It's a Typical phenomenon of Market Sentiments. Currently Bulls need to be extremely careful. One must book profits and remain in cash. And must avoid excessive buying or leveraging. Trend will change to Down below 9150. Once the Trend changes to Down one can then short on Rise.

As mentioned we are still in early stage of Bull Market. Those who haven't made any Investments can wait for the Correction to get over in a month ahead. The Correction will give a Buying Opportunity. One needs to find Stock Specific Opportunities to make Investment in Equities. Currently just wait for Correction to get over.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

16 March 2017

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Course Content

·         Introduction To Technical Analysis
·         Types Of Charts
·         Introduction to Japanese Candlesticks
·         Introduction Dow Theory   
·         Moving Averages
·         Indicators & Oscillators
·         Trend Analysis
·         Trend Lines & Trend Channels
·         Price Patterns (Reversal & Continuation)
·         Gap Analysis
·         Support And Resistance
·         Fibonacci Ratios (Retracements & Extensions)
·         Price & Volume Analysis
·         Trade & Risk Management
·         Portfolio Management


Course Highlights

·         Effective use of Trend Lines and Trend Channels
·         Combination of Price Patterns, RSI & Fibonacci
·         High Probability Trading Price Patterns.
·         Identifying Possible Trend Reversals Ahead of Market Action.
·         Limited seats to enable Highly Interactive Session
·         Encyclopedia of Free E-Books on Technical Analysis


Course Duration & Fees

Duration:  2 Days  –  16 Hours
Timings:  10.00 a.m. to 6.00 p.m.
Fees:        Rs. 10,000/-

For Enquiry

Call Harsh:  9920452057

Email:- trendonomics@gmail.com

22 February 2017

NIFTY - SHORT TERM TOP IN PLACE??

Hi Friends,

As mentioned in my Twitter post Nifty took support near 8710 and resumed Up Trend. Nifty tested 8920 and formed Hanging Man Candlestick Pattern. There is Fibonacci Resistance at 8929 and Negative Divergence on RSI. All these are signaling a Shot Term Top is near.
NIFTY
As mentioned the Rise from 7900-8460 seems to be an Impulse in Wave 1 of the New Bull Market. The decline to 8327 seems to be Correction in Wave 2. Nifty consumed lot of time between 8710-8820 and hence a Revision in Wave Count needed. Nifty seem to have completed extended 3rd Wave near 8820. And decline to 8712 seems to be Wave 4. Currently Nifty seems to be in Wave 5 which is nearing end.

Currently there is Strong Support at 8810-8820. Until Nifty stays above the support Nifty may continue it's Up Trend. The Resistance is at 8929, 8969 and 9063. Nifty may start declining once breaks 8810-8820. Below 8810 Trend will change to Down.


As mentioned in my video analysis the crowd is now Bullish as Nifty reaching the Highs. It's a Typical phenomenon of Market Sentiments. Currently Bulls need to be extremely careful. One must book profits as Nifty nearing the Highs. And must avoid excessive buying or leveraging. While it's a Long Caution it doesn't mean a Sell Signal. Trend will change to Down below 8810. Once the Trend changes to Down one can then short on Rise.

As mentioned we are still in early stage of Bull Market. Those who haven't made any Investments can wait for the Correction to get over in a month ahead. The Correction will give a buying Opportunity. One needs to find Stock Specific Opportunities to make Investment in Equities. Currently just wait for Correction to get over.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

20 February 2017

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TRAINING PROGRAM IN MUMBAI - 04th & 5th MARCH

Are you Fed Up of losing money in Stock Market?  

Confused what Market will do next?

Be your own Boss and Learn to make wise Trading and Investing Decisions using Technical Analysis.

TREND-O-NOMICS brings you Technical Analysis Training Program in Mumbai.


Course Content

·         Introduction To Technical Analysis
·         Types Of Charts
·         Introduction to Japanese Candlesticks
·         Introduction Dow Theory   
·         Moving Averages
·         Indicators & Oscillators
·         Trend Analysis
·         Trend Lines & Trend Channels
·         Price Patterns (Reversal & Continuation)
·         Gap Analysis
·         Support And Resistance
·         Fibonacci Ratios (Retracements & Extensions)
·         Price & Volume Analysis
·         Trade & Risk Management
·         Portfolio Management


Course Highlights

·         Effective use of Trend Lines and Trend Channels
·         Combination of Price Patterns, RSI & Fibonacci
·         High Probability Trading Price Patterns.
·         Identifying Possible Trend Reversals Ahead of Market Action.
·         Limited seats to enable Highly Interactive Session
·         Encyclopedia of Free E-Books on Technical Analysis


Course Duration & Fees

Duration:  2 Days  –  16 Hours
Timings:  10.00 a.m. to 6.00 p.m.
Fees:        Rs. 10,000/-

For Enquiry

Call Harsh:  9920452057
Email:- trendonomics@gmail.com


12 February 2017

NIFTY IN CONSOLIDATION - WHAT LIES AHEAD??

Hi Friends,

As mentioned in my previous post Nifty seems to be in extended  3rd Wave. After breaking 8730 Nifty tested 8820. Nifty has been in range from 8720-8820 for entire week. On weekly Chart Nifty formed a Doji and closed near 8793.


As mentioned the Rise from 7900-8460 seems to be an Impulse in Wave 1 of the New Bull Market. The decline to 8327 seems to be Correction in Wave 2. Currently Nifty seems to be in extended 3rd Wave. On hourly chart Nifty seems to have completed wave (I) of Wave 3 at 8672. The decline to 8537 seems to be wave (II) of extended 3rd. Currently Nifty seems to be in wave (III) of 3 which is further subdividing.

As mentioned close above 8730 is Highly Bullish Indication. Currently there is Strong Support at 8710-8730. Until Nifty stays above the support Nifty may continue it's Up Trend. The Resistance is at 8822, 8896 and 9063. Nifty may rise in Wave 3 to 9170-9230 i.e. 1.68% extension of Wave 1.

As mentioned in my video analysis major participants are still in disbelief. We are currently in early stage of Bull Market. The majority will believe in the Bull once Nifty breaks above Lifetime High of 9118. Those who still haven't made any Investments need to find Stock Specific Opportunities to make Investment in Equities. Mother of Bull markets ahead of us.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

6 February 2017

NIFTY - RALLY OF DISBELIEF

Hi Friends,

As mentioned in my previous post Nifty corrected after breaking 8610. Nifty retraced 38.2% of the previous Rise from 8327-8672 and tested 8537. After testing 8537 Nifty started rising again and tested 8815 and closed near 8800. As mentioned in previous post close above 8730 is Highly Bullish Indication.
NIFTY
As mentioned the Rise from 7900-8460 seems to be an Impulse in Wave 1 of the New Bull Market. The decline to 8327 seems to be Correction in Wave 2. Currently Nifty might be in extended 3rd Wave. On hourly chart Nifty seems to have completed wave (I) of Wave 3 at 8672. The decline to 8537 seems to be wave (II) of extended 3rd. Currently Nifty seems to be in wave (III) of 3.

As mentioned close above 8730 is Highly Bullish Indication. Currently there is Strong Support at 8740-8760. Until Nifty stays above the support Nifty may continue it's Up Trend. The Resistance is at 8896, 9063. Nifty may rise in Wave 3 to 9230 i.e. 1.68% extension of Wave 1.


As mentioned in my video analysis major participants are still in disbelief. We are currently in early stage of Bull Market. The majority will believe in the Bull once Nifty breaks above Lifetime High of 9118. Those who still haven't made any Investments need to find Stock Specific Opportunities to make Investment in Equities. Mother of Bull markets ahead of us.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

29 January 2017

NIFTY AHEAD OF BUDGET

Hi Friends,

As mentioned in my previous post Nifty took support near 8330. Nifty retraced 23.6% of the previous Rise from 7900-8460. After testing 8330 Nifty started rising again and tested 8672 and closed near 8640.
NIFTY
As mentioned the Rise from 7900-8460 seems to be an Impulse. This Impulse might be the Wave 1 of the New Bull Market. The decline to 8330 seems to be Correction in Wave 2 and Nifty might be in Wave 3 currently. On hourly chart Nifty seems to be in wave (i) of Wave 3. Wave (i) might get over near 8730. Nifty might correct to 8610 in wave (ii) of Wave 3 of New Bull Market.

Currently there is Strong Resistance near 8730 and Support at 8610. Since currently Nifty is overbought it may remain in this range for next 3-4 sessions and resume the Uptrend in Wave (iii) of 3 post Budget. Break above 8730 would be Final confirmation of a Bull Market. Once Nifty breaks and sustains above 8730 there is no looking back. The target for Wave 3 shall be 9230 i.e. 1.68% extension of Wave 1.


Currently we need to watch price action near 8730 and 8610 carefully to determine future course of action.  Those who still haven't made any Investments and looking for the Dip; Budget would be the Best Opportunity. Investors need to find Stock Specific Opportunities over next few sessions to make Investment in Equities. Don't miss the Opportunity now.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

23 January 2017

NIFTY EW ANALYSIS

Hi Friends,

As mentioned in my video analysis after breaking the Rising Channel Nifty started declining. Nifty also broke the Support at 8370 and closed below it. As mentioned below 8370 the Short Term Trend has changed to Down.
NIFTY HOURLY
The current Rise from the low of 7900 seems to be an Impulse as shown in the Hourly Chart. We can clearly see a 5 Wave move Up completing near 8460. This Impulse might be the Wave I of the New Bull Market. Nifty closed below important Support of 8370. Below 8370 Nifty may correct till 8330, 8290 or 8230 in Wave II of the New Bull Market.


As mentioned earlier Nifty seem to have resumed the Bull Market. Currently the Short Term Trend is down and Correction may get over near 8230. Nifty may resume the Up Trend above 8430. I would look for alternate count only below 8110.

Currently we need to watch price action near 8230 and 8430 carefully to determine future course of action.  Those who still haven't made any Investments and looking for the Dip; this Correction would be the Best Opportunity. Investors need to find Stock Specific Opportunities over next 1-2 weeks to make Investment in Equities.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

16 January 2017

NIFTY - VIDEO ANALYSIS

Hi Friends,

This is my 1st video Analysis on Nifty. In this video I'm discussing about the Long Term as well as Short Term Trend in Nifty based on Elliott Wave Principle. As we are now back in Bull Market I'm Forecasting  a Target of 11,300 by year end 2017. Also discussed short term Support and Target for month of January 2017.

For Detailed Analysis & Charts watch the Video.


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7 January 2017

NIFTY - IS IT A START OF BULL MARKET?

Hi Friends,

As mentioned in my previous post Nifty took Resistance near 8275-8300. Nifty tested 8306 however failed to close above 8275. As mentioned earlier Nifty has taken Support at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement and formed a Double Bottom near 7900 with Positive Divergence on RSI. All these are signs of possible Trend Reversal. However Bulls need to break above 8300-8338 to confirm Bull Trend.
NIFTY DAILY
The current Rise from the low of 7900 seems to be an Impulse as shown in the Hourly Chart Below. We can clearly see a 5 Wave move Up completing near 8306. This Impulse might be the Wave (i) of the New Bull Market. Nifty closed below important Intraday Support of 8250. Below 8250 Nifty may correct till 8183, 8151 or 8133 in Wave (ii) of the New Bull Market (If any.)
NIFTY HOURLY
In my earlier post I also mentioned about Head & Shoulders Pattern. However, currently Bulls are having Upper Hand. The HnS Pattern may Fail if Bulls manage to take out 8300-8338. The Neckline of the HnS is near 7900. To Break the HnS Bears need to break the support at 8110-8065 and finally the Neckline near 7900. Currently Bears are on loosing side. And it seems that the Pattern is more likely to Fail.

As mentioned currently Nifty might be still in Corrective Mode in Wave (II) of one larger Degree.  Until Bulls take out 8300 Nifty would Remain in Down Trend. Bull Market will Resume above 8300, 8338. If Bears break the support at 8110 and 7900 Nifty may Decline to 7678 or lower to 7489.

Currently we need to watch price action near 8110 and 8338 carefully to determine future course of action. As mentioned Nifty seems to be completing correction in Wave (II). Investors need to find Stock Specific Opportunities over next 1-2 months to make Investment in Equities. Those who missed the Opportunity in Feb 2016 can surely look to Invest in next 1-2 months as the Market Bottoms Out.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

3 January 2017

IS NIFTY READY FOR THE NEW BULL RUN IN A NEW YEAR??

Hi Friends,

As mentioned in my previous post Nifty took Support near 7896 and gave a sharp Rebound. Nifty broke the resistance of 8110 and tested 8212. Nifty has taken Support at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement and formed a Double Bottom near 7900 with Positive Divergence on RSI. All these are signs of possible Trend Reversal.
NIFTY
In my previous post I also mentioned about Head & Shoulders Pattern. The Neckline of the HnS is near 7900. To Break the HnS Bears need to break the support at 8110-8065 and finally the Neckline near 7900. Currently Bears seem to be on loosing side.

As mentioned currently Nifty might be still in Corrective Mode in Wave (II).  Until Bulls take out Previous Swing High of 8275 Nifty would Remain in Down Trend. Bull Market will Resume above 8275, 8338. If Bears break the support at 8065 and 7896 Nifty may Decline to 7678 or lower to 7489.

Currently we need to watch price action near 8065 and 8338 carefully to determine future course of action. As mentioned Nifty is in Wave (II). Investors need to find Stock Specific Opportunities over next 2 months to make Investment in Equities. Those who missed the Opportunity in Feb 2016 can surely look to Invest in next 2 months as the Market Bottoms Out.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.