14 August 2017

NIFTY SHORT TERM UPDATE

Hi Friends,

As mentioned in my previous Post. Nifty closed below 9792. So that's the Indication of Trend Change. Nifty tested 9685 and started rebounding. Currently it's trading near the Resistance of 9800. As Long as Nifty stays below this Resistance the Trend will remain Down.



As visible from the chart Nifty has Resistance near 9805-9815. The fall from 10088 to 9685 looks like a 3rd Wave which extended 2.618% of Wave 1. And current bounce might be Wave 4 which might be ending soon. As long as Nifty stays below the Channel Resistance Nifty Might Fall towards 9530-9450 as mentioned earlier. The confirmation for the fall would come once Nifty starts trading below 9777 and goes below 9710. Today's close must be below 9777 to conclude that the Down Trend will continue.




How long Nifty could continue to decline? If the assumption of the Current rise being wave 4 is true Nifty may Fall in the proportion to the previous Fall. Nifty has Fibonacci supports near 9527-9451-9354. Nifty Might Fall towards the previous Swing Low near 9450.

Conclusion: The assumption of Downtrend to continue will hold until Nifty closes and trades below 9792-9777. Close and sustaining above 9792 and we shall look for other alternatives.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit. 

9 August 2017

NIFTY EW ANALYSIS

Hi Friends,

As mentioned in my Facebook Post of 1st August Nifty started declining after testing 10137. As visible from the Weekly chart below Nifty took the Resistance of the Weekly Channel. Nifty Formed Shooting star on Weekly and started declining. This is the Initial sign of Trend Reversal.



Nifty started forming Lower Top Lower Bottom on Daily Chart further confirming the Trend Reversal. Nifty broke the Support at 9944, 9927 and closed below 9927. This is further sign of weakness. Currently the supports are at 9868-9836 and 9792. There is Channel and swing low Support at 9792 as visible from the Daily Chart below.



Nifty seem to have completed Wave (I) at 10137. If Nifty breaks the Support at 9792 and sustains below it will be confirmation of Top done at 10137. If Bulls Manage to protect 9792 then Nifty may continue the Uptrend.

Confirmation of medium term Trend Reversal will be only below 9792. Once Nifty starts trading below 9792 and sustains below it we can look for downside targets for Correction in Wave (II). Once below 9792 the next strong Support is at 9448. We can expect decline towards 9440 in August series once Nifty sustains below 9792.

Once Nifty confirms the Trend Reversal it may fall towards 9440, 9270 or 9020 over next 3 months. This Analysis will be true only once Nifty breaks and sustains below 9792. Failure to break 9792 will lead to continuation in Up Trend. 

I will look for alternate count if Nifty breaks and sustains above the Resistance at 9944-9988. Above 9944-9988 we can look for New High towards 10270.

Conclusion :- One needs to look at the Market Behavior near key levels 9792-9836 and 9944-9988 to make their trading decisions.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

6 August 2017

SUN PHARMA - END (OF BEAR)?

Hi Friends,

Sun Pharma had been in Down Trend ever since it made Top in April 2015. The stock has been trading in Downward Trend Channel since 2015. The Stock has declined around 60% in last 2 years. Overall consensus is Bearish on Pharma stocks with negative News from US FDA. According to many Analysts and Investors Pharma Story is over. Once the Darling of D-Street Pharma stocks are now dead and no one wants to Invest in Pharma.

However Technical Analysis suggesting something else. Sun Pharma seems to be in Triple Zigzag Correction. Currently it seems to be in last leg Z of the Zigzag. The Correction might get over near 470. Downtrend Channel support is near 470 and RSI has Positive Divergence as visible in Chart below.



If Sun Pharma takes Support near 470 & start Moving Up it might lead to Trend Reversal. As visible from the Chart below Sun Pharma has Long Term Trend Channel support near 470. The stock seems to be 4th wave Correction which is forming as a Triple zigzag. The Correction in Wave 4 might get over near 470.



If the stock manages to protect the support near 470 it could be a Turn Around Story. Sun Pharma may resume Up Trend in Wave 5 and head towards the higher end of Monthly Trend Channel above All Time High. The stock may provide 100-200-300% & Return in Next 3-5-7 years.

Speculators may Buy the stock near 470 with slop loss of Trend Channel Support. Ideally a move above the Falling Trend Channel or above 650 would be confirmation of Trend Reversal. Risk Averse Investors may Buy the Stock once it starts trading above Channel Resistance. Speculators may Buy Near 470.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.